# Lula is re-elected in an unprecedented second-round comeback

With 51.79% of the valid votes, Lula beats Flávio Bolsonaro and wins a fourth term in the first comeback between rounds since the return to democracy.

- Section: Politics
- Published: October 26, 2026
- Address: https://ceoone.com.br/en/article/lula-is-re-elected-in-an-unprecedented-second-round-comeback
- Em português: https://ceoone.com.br/artigo/lula-e-reeleito-em-virada-inedita-no-2o-turno.md

![Lula with his arm raised in front of a Brazilian flag, under a blue sky](https://pub-b80e49b2737940b3ab5d3f20d0578192.r2.dev/artigos/lula-e-reeleito-em-virada-inedita-no-2o-turno-foto-1920.webp)

Photo: Reproduction/Agência Senado

## Key points

- Lula had 51.79% of the valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
- It was the first comeback between rounds since the return to democracy: Flávio won in 14 states, Lula in 13, and in Minas Gerais the margin was 0.58 percentage points.
- Fiscal adjustment, dialogue with Congress and predictability for investment are the fronts the market now follows.

The closest race in the country's recent history has come to an end. With 51.79% of the valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secures a fourth presidential term in a result marked by narrow margins and by the first comeback between rounds since the return to democracy.

## What decided the election in the details

The race for the undecided: Lower abstention in the second round and the mass shift of third-way votes were the engines that secured Lula's comeback.

A divided map: Flávio Bolsonaro won in 14 states; Lula took 13. In Minas Gerais, the classic swing state of national elections, the president came from behind by just 0.58 percentage points.

Forecasting errors: The gap between the ballot result and most polls and prediction platforms showed, once again, how unpredictable Brazilian voters are in the final stretch.

## What senior leadership is watching now

With the result settled, the business community now follows three strategic fronts closely:

1. Fiscal adjustment and reforms: The market's top priority will be the government's ability to keep public accounts balanced and to move ahead with the regulations of the tax reform.

2. Dialogue with Congress: With a predominantly conservative, opposition-led Legislature, governability will depend on pragmatic negotiations to pass the economic agenda.

3. Predictability and investment: For companies, the moment calls for a cool-headed reading of scenarios, management of regulatory risk and a focus on the continuity of long-term operations.

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